Australian Property Market Update: Will Prices Ever Come Down? with Arjun Paliwal
Nov 25, 2025
By Molly Benjamin, Founder of Ladies Finance Club
Listen to the full podcast here.
If you’ve been refreshing realestate.com.au every night wondering, “Will property prices ever come down?”, you’re not alone.
In this episode of Get Rich, Molly Benjamin chats with property expert Arjun Paliwal, founder of InvestorKit, to unpack what’s really going on in the Australian housing market right now, and whether there’s ever going to be a “perfect time” to buy.
The State of the Market Right Now
Arjun kicks off with some perspective:
Australia’s property market has grown 4.8% over the last 12 months, which is just below the long-term average. But here’s the interesting bit, the last quarter alone grew 2.2%.
If that momentum continues, we’re looking at an annualised rate of 8.8%, which falls squarely into boom territory.
And where’s most of that growth happening?
In the lower quartile, the more affordable parts of the market. That’s where buyers are moving the fastest, especially as higher interest rates push people to seek value.
Will Prices Ever Come Down?
It’s the million-dollar question, literally.
Arjun’s take? There isn’t one property market in Australia.
There are hundreds of local markets, each behaving differently.
Even when national prices drop 3%, there are still suburbs, like Townsville, which grew 20% last year, bucking the trend.
So instead of trying to time the “Australian market,” Arjun says focus on the specific location and local economy you’re buying into.
Three key factors determine whether a market is likely to fall:
- A weak local economy — think job losses, low migration, or slow development.
- Oversupply of housing — too many listings, not enough buyers.
- Low sentiment — when people feel uncertain, they hold off buying, which can slow things down.
But if a suburb has strong job growth, limited supply, and good sentiment, it’s likely to hold or grow in value, even if the national headlines say otherwise.
What About Interest Rates?
The Reserve Bank’s next move always gets plenty of attention, but Arjun says not to overthink it.
“Interest rates are just one part of the puzzle,” he explains. “Even when rates were going up, cities like Brisbane, Adelaide, and Townsville still saw solid growth.”
So yes, rates matter for your borrowing power and budgeting.
But if you’re buying smart, choosing the right location, and playing the long game, rates alone shouldn’t make or break your investment.
Understanding Your Equity
Ever wondered how to calculate your home equity?
Arjun breaks it down simply:
If your property is worth $1 million and your loan is $700,000, you’ve got $300,000 in equity.
You could potentially use a portion of that (usually up to 80–90% of the property value) to reinvest, renovate, or create a buffer fund.
But as Molly says, “Be careful of using equity for fun’s sake. Boats and handbags don’t appreciate!”
Negotiating Better Rates
If your bank is playing hardball, timing is everything.
Arjun shares three moments when you hold the most power:
- When you’re taking out the loan – use competing offers to your advantage.
- When you’re thinking of leaving – banks hate losing customers.
- When you’re expanding your portfolio – more loans = more leverage to negotiate.
His tip? Do your homework, get quotes in writing, and approach your bank confidently.
Spotlight on Melbourne
Melbourne’s market has been sluggish, but Arjun recently bought a property there himself, for the same price it sold for 10 years ago.
He sees that as opportunity.
While Melbourne’s local economy has lagged behind, affordability is improving, sentiment is turning, and internal migration trends are stabilising.
It’s not booming yet, but the recovery is on its way, slowly but surely.
Government Schemes and Market Impact
Yes, the 5% deposit scheme has had an impact, it’s added extra demand, especially at the affordable end of the market.
As Arjun puts it, “When you give more people access to buy, demand increases, and that puts upward pressure on prices.”
So while it’s great for helping first-home buyers get in the door, it can also make competition tougher.
Where Are People Buying Right Now?
InvestorKit’s data shows the fastest-growing markets are still in Queensland and Western Australia, places like:
- Townsville
- Rockhampton
- Bunbury
- Geraldton
But Arjun’s team is also seeing strong activity in regional Victoria and NSW, with markets like Albury-Wodonga and Mildura performing well.
What Exactly Is a Buyer’s Agent?
If you’ve been missing out at auctions, it might be time to get a professional in your corner.
A buyer’s agent works for you, not the seller, finding properties, doing due diligence, and negotiating the best deal.
Arjun explains it best:
“A seller has an agent trying to get them the best price. You should have one too.”
At the most basic level, a buyer’s agent evens the playing field. At the higher level, like Arjun’s firm, they’re property strategists who use data, AI, and research to help you buy properties that actually perform over time.
The big takeaway? There’s no one-size-fits-all answer to the question “Will prices ever come down?”
Some markets might dip, some will surge, and some will just tick along steadily. What matters is choosing the right area, having the right strategy, and getting expert guidance.
Because when you get those three things right, you don’t need to worry about timing the market, you just need to get in and stay smart.
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Plus, a huge shoutout to our sponsor, InvestorKit! Australia’s #1 Buyers Agency for 2023 and 2024. They specialise in helping investors find high-growth properties utilising industry leading AI and data driven research process across Australia. 70%+ of the properties they purchase are off-market and they have consistently outperformed national average capital growth rates by over 49%. Whether you’re looking to build your property portfolio or secure your first investment. Check them out here.
