Property Investing After the Budget: Buy Now or Wait? Arjun Paliwal Explains 

Should you still buy property after the latest Australian Budget changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax?

Molly sits down with buyers’ agent and property investing expert Arjun Paliwal from Investorkit to break down what’s actually changed for Australian property investors and first home buyers, what hasn’t, and whether the recent tax changes should really affect your decision to buy property.

With so much confusion around negative gearing, capital gains tax, new build incentives and property investing, it’s easy to panic and put your plans on hold. This episode cuts through the noise with clear, practical advice, no jargon, no scaremongering.

Whether you're considering buying your first home, investing in property, or you've paused your plans because of the latest government changes, this episode will help you understand what the new rules could mean for you.

In this episode, you'll learn:

• What’s actually changed with negative gearing, capital gains tax and new build incentives
• What the latest Australian Budget changes mean for property investors and first home buyers
• Why property finance applications have reportedly dropped since the Budget
• Arjun’s five-point checklist for knowing when it could be the right time to buy
• Why new build investment properties aren’t automatically better
• What happens if you buy property now, including the July 2027 and July 2028 cut-offs
• How interest rate cuts and rising rents could offset some of the impact of negative gearing changes
• Who is actually affected by the new property tax rules, and who isn’t
• What the proposed capital gains tax discount changes and 30% minimum tax could mean for investors
• The “third decade effect” and why time in the market can matter more than perfect timing
• Why uncertainty doesn’t necessarily mean you should stop investing

Who is this episode for?

This episode is for Australian women thinking about buying their first home or an investment property, anyone feeling anxious about recent Australian Budget and property tax changes, and women who want to make property investment decisions based on strategy rather than fear.

The biggest takeaway? The property fundamentals haven’t necessarily changed as much as people’s confidence has. And understanding the difference could help you make a much more informed decision about your next move.

🎧 Want more from Arjun?

Arjun Paliwal is one of the speakers joining us at the Online Wealth Summit 2026, a free one-day virtual financial education event designed to help you make smarter, more confident decisions with your money.

👉 Register for the 2026 Online Wealth Summit

CHAPTERS

00:00 - Introduction: Has the Federal Budget Changed the Property Investing Game?
01:29 - Welcome Back Arjun: Catching Up Since the Last Property Episode
02:05 - Finance Applications Drop 20%: What the Westpac Data Really Shows
03:33 - Should Investors and First Home Buyers Still Buy? Arjun's Honest Take
03:52 - The 5-Point Investment Checklist Every Property Investor Needs
05:48 - Why a Property Strategy (Not Guesswork) Is the Key to Confident Buying
06:35 - New Builds vs Established Homes: The "New Car Effect" Explained
09:01 - "Wealth Building Doesn't Happen From Tax Back": Arjun's Golden Rule
09:21 - Is the Established Property Market Still Moving? A City-by-City Look
10:08 - Buying Property Today: Do the Old Rules or New Rules Apply?
10:28 - The July 2027 vs July 2028 Cutoff Explained Simply
11:44 - Negative Gearing Isn't Gone, It's Just Deferred: Here's What That Means
13:35 - Should You Still Plan to Hold Long-Term? The Capital Gains Tax Question
14:04 - The "Third Decade Effect": How Compounding Multiplies Property Wealth
14:51 - Final Advice: Why Taking Action Beats Waiting for Certainty 

RESOURCES FROM THE EPISODE

Budget 2026–27 – Tax Reform (Negative Gearing & CGT):
https://budget.gov.au/content/04-tax-reform.htm
Treasury.gov.au – Budget 2026-27 tax system changes:
https://treasury.gov.au/policy-topics/taxation/budget2026-27

CONNECT WITH ARJUN PALIWAL

Website: https://www.investorkit.com.au/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/arjpaliwal/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/propertybuyersagent/
TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@investorkit

CONNECT WITH LADIES FINANCE CLUB

Buying a property? Need Financial Advice? Time to sort the Will? Let us help connect you with an awesome woman in finance! https://directory.ladiesfinanceclub.com/
Join our free Facebook group - Ladies Finance Club Money Chat
Website: https://www.ladiesfinanceclub.com/
Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/ladiesfinanceclub/
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/ladies-finance-club/
Newsletter: https://www.ladiesfinanceclub.com/newsletter23

TAKEAWAYS

SOUND BITES

"Market sentiment shifts can create opportunities."

"Wealth building happens from great decisions in markets that are chronically undersupplied."

"Long-term holding benefits from the third decade effect."

TRANSCRIPT

 [00:00:00] Hey everyone. Welcome back to another episode of Get Rich, the podcast that helps you do just that, get rich and stay rich. I'm your host, Molly, and today we've got a returning guest. You'll remember him from a few months back, but Arjun from InvestorKit is back with us, and the timing could not be better.

[00:00:19] Well, the timing's right because I asked him to come on. 'Cause really, it's been a bit of a rollercoaster since we last had him on around property. So we've had the federal budget announcements, changes to negative gearing, capital gains tax changes, new build versus established build policy shifts, and I know a lot of you have messaged saying like, "Feeling a bit anxious.

[00:00:38] I don't even know what this means. What do I do?" So in this episode, we're breaking it all down. Has this actually changed the fundamentals of property investing in Australia, or is it more just about how people are feeling right now? Now, before we jump on, Arjun is also one of our speakers at our online wealth summit, and the date of our summit is the 18th of September, 2026.

[00:00:59] So if you love what you hear today and you wanna go even deeper, he's gonna be running a session all about this topic. Make sure if you haven't yet, register for our online wealth summit. It's a day of financial education. It's completely free to attend, and we've got some incredible speakers. Even if you can't make it for the whole day, you can just jump in and jump out for the sessions.

[00:01:18] Things like how to invest for your kids and how to legally pay less tax, we're gonna be covering it all. Welcome back to the podcast, Arjun. It's been a hot minute, and we're excited to have you back.

[00:01:29] Thank you so much. No, it's been a minute, and, uh, keen to chat on all things following a lot of the shifts and changes, right?

[00:01:35] Yeah, 'cause I have to say, last time we spoke was about six months ago, and, like, a lot has changed. So I guess when we look at... Obviously, there's been the federal budget announcements around new builds versus old builds, negative gearing, capital gains tax changes. Has this completely changed the game, or is it just like we should be carrying on as we were before?

[00:01:58] What are you seeing, and can you share some advice with us? 'Cause we've got a lot of very, I guess, a little bit anxious listeners.

[00:02:05] Yeah, look, it's changed the game on the aspect of people's mindsets on what they should or shouldn't do. So has it changed the game on what you should do and the impact to you?

[00:02:18] No. But has it changed the game in terms of what people are doing and how are they feeling? Yes. We've seen a 20%-plus reduction just since April, May through to now on Westpac Bank's finance applications. Mm. Right? So that's huge, 26% from investors. So it's not just investors, it's first-home buyers. The people that the policy change thought that this was gonna benefit are taking step-backs.

[00:02:44] Owner-occupiers taking step back, investors taking step back. So this is not a structural change in foundations or fundamentals in Australia. Mm-hmm. This is a change of policy that has made people feel uncertain and just take steps back. Mm, yeah. So when you look at the game changing, Molly, yes, that's changed because if 20% of, of reduction in numbers coming through has happened, it's happened.

[00:03:08] But it's not changed if you actually break down the math, break down the undersupply and the likelihood- Of a return to confidence and price growth i- picking up immensely. So what happens when that happens is you'll always kick yourself for looking back at times like this and not taking action. And this is a theme that we've seen for many, many occasions, COVID and more.

[00:03:33] Okay. So I guess then let's look at investors and then first home buyers. So for investors who are exactly what you're doing, they're like, "Oh, I was gonna buy an investment property, but now I'm like, 'Oh, I don't know what to think. I don't know what to do.'" What would your advice be for someone in that situation?

[00:03:52] For someone there, look, anything in investing, I believe, comes down to a checklist. Like, and this is what the savviest investors do. They look at life with checklists, they look at business with checklists, because if you do, that is you systemizing these wealth creation components. Like, at the end of the day, when you're looking at growing wealth, it shouldn't be guesswork, it should be a system.

[00:04:13] And so the checkpoints I have is, can I borrow? Do I have a buffer? Can I hold the property? Do I have a portfolio plan that suggests I should or should not, in this given year, make a move? And then do I have the equity and deposit to make the deal happen?

[00:04:29] Yeah.

[00:04:29] So if you're a tick across all these five, you shouldn't even be thinking about what's happening now, because there is always a market somewhere, and those five mean it's buy time.

[00:04:39] But if any of these five aren't working, then you couldn't have bought and shouldn't have bought. And if you do buy, it's a risk play. And sure, you might take a punt to some parts in life, but that's not what the best investors do. The best investors follow life to a checklist. Should I hire? Should I not?

[00:04:54] Should I grow? Should I not? Should I market this way? Should I not? Everything is following calculated goals and checklists, and this is what the best investors do in business and life and in property investing. So that's the way you should be thinking of it. The second thing is, it's just almost every cycle, if you look back, of craziness in the world, GFC, the dotcom burst- COVID, the government changes, wars, every single time where there's uncertainty has actually been some of the best times to transact.

[00:05:26] And so if you look at it from two parts to go, "Yeah, the bank's willing to give us money," or the broker, "Yeah, we don't have the number of properties we need to get to retirement. We've got the cash we have. We're saving pretty good. We're on good incomes. We can handle it, and we've got the equity and deposit to make this purchase," then the answer should be, "Why aren't you?"

[00:05:46] Not, "Should I or should I not?"

[00:05:48] Yeah. And I think as well what you're talking there is about the strategy piece as well. And again, if someone's like, "Well, how the hell do I do that for myself?" There's companies like yourself, InvestaKid, buyer's agents, they will actually sit down and do that strategy with you so it doesn't feel like, "Where do I even begin?"

[00:06:07] Absolutely. When we kick off the journey, it's always like we don't buy properties or present properties straight away. The first component is: What's the plan? Where are you now? Where are you trying to get to from property investing, and what's the gaps in between? Strategy.

[00:06:20] And have, like, with obviously the new...

[00:06:24] well, the changes have stayed the same for new builds. What are your thoughts if someone's going, "Well, maybe I'll look at a new build as opposed to an established building so I can get that negative gearing"?

[00:06:35] Yeah. So when it comes to new builds and everything there, it's important to understand this. Just because a tax policy's shifted- Mm

[00:06:43] doesn't make something suddenly better. At the end of the day, the tax policy's shifted, and it's making people consider the new car more than the established car. And so we all know what happens when the new car effect kicks in. You drive out the showroom, and suddenly it's not worth what you paid for

[00:07:01] it.

[00:07:01] Mm.

[00:07:01] We also have to remember that the old car being passed along is often much easier to transact, doesn't cost anywhere as much. It's usually something where it's depreciated the most already and now we've got a value point that sits somewhere and can be transacted easily. So if we take this car analogy over to housing, what we're gonna realize and see is that the country's housing shortage did not happen from the new builds just simply not building because they weren't, uh, able to be built.

[00:07:31] The new builds were always able to be built. One of the big problems are that when people go and look at the new build properties is that the developers aren't able to see the margins to get this project off the ground- Yeah. Mm ... and get enough out there, get it enough as fast as they'd like to. But then what's happened now is that you have the governments go, "Hey, look, we'll sh- throw a whole bunch of investors your way to be incentivized to get this tax back."

[00:07:56] So the go-- that does still doesn't change it, but now what happens is they get more demand. Mm. So if they get more demand, they can go, "Oh, so you know that package we're trying to sell or the blocks that we're trying to sell that we couldn't before 'cause it sounded crazy from the price, maybe it won't seem as crazy anymore for that price if we actually sell it because now we can make money on it if people are led to believe that this is better for them."

[00:08:17] Mm. So instead of having, uh, crickets to buy this eight, 900k house and land package somewhere where established houses are much cheaper and it's a much smaller block and something's not as, uh, appealing- Mm ... suddenly now investors will be blindfolded looking at the tax benefits only and start to go, "Oh, this seems better because my accountant said I'll save tax and- Yeah

[00:08:38] the government, government's saying this." Overnight, building didn't get cheaper. Overnight, trades didn't pop out of nowhere. Overnight- Mm ... taxes didn't disappear for building. Yeah. Overnight, what happened is it just is gonna confuse and trick a lot of people to buy cheap junk overpriced and pay a lot more for it, and think that it's okay to pay a lot more for it because they're getting some tax back.

[00:09:01] Wealth building doesn't happen from tax back. Wealth building happens from great decisions in markets that are chronically undersupplied, and then you're repeating that decision again and again.

[00:09:12] Yeah, I love that. Okay. Wealth creation isn't... Yeah. I'll get that line and use that as a quote 'cause that is the day one around the tax.

[00:09:21] And interesting to see, are you still seeing properties shift, property prices shift in the established market even, like, now after everything?

[00:09:31] Look, established market, everywhere across the country, established market has taken a breather everywhere, and the main thing is some breathers are likely to be deeper because the fundamentals plus the sentiment change weren't as strong.

[00:09:43] Sydney is proving to be a market like that at this stage. Then there are other markets where there's been affordable lifestyle, strong local conditions, job creation, strong local economy, and they have taken a breather there because of sentiment, but as soon as that sentiment shifts and people realize that it wasn't that bad as they thought in certain areas, those markets rocket back the fastest because of their strength and fundamentals.

[00:10:08] Hmm. Interesting. Okay. Just a couple more questions, and these are from our audience as well. We've had some questions from our ladies online, uh, three questions come through, and one of the questions was, from a property that they buy today, does it fall under the old rules or the new rules? And what determines that cutoff?

[00:10:28] If they buy a property today, there is a hybrid or transition effect we'll call it, where you still get the old rules up until July 2027. So when you submit your tax returns in July 2027- Mm ... the old rules will flow through. But then when you have your tax returns ch- done in July 2028, the understanding we have is that your properties purchased after May 12th budget event will not have that.

[00:10:54] They will have the tax return disappear. So it's like a transition tax return, then it'll disappear. But here's the big thing that people aren't recognizing, Molly. If you have a one and a half percent interest rate reduction- Mm-hmm ... between now and July 2028-

[00:11:09] Yeah ...

[00:11:10] with some rental increases that are happening too, the combination of those two is the equivalent of someone buying a property in April this year pre-budget And still having negative gearing.

[00:11:23] Okay, wow. So the key thing is, have a look at the Jan to April and how much strength and activity there was from many markets. But as soon as that change happened and people are unsure or uncertain, all of those changes are essentially wiped out if interest rate declines and rent increases collaborate to make that happen.

[00:11:44] Now, it doesn't have to be 1.5%, it could be lower interest rate declines but stronger rent increases. At the end of the day, negative gearing just shifted the tax output you get each year.

[00:11:53] Yeah.

[00:11:54] And interest rate reductions and rent increases are also changing the tax or cashflow output each year. And lastly, the big myth: negative gearing's not gone.

[00:12:03] It hasn't disappeared. Mm. When you sell a property, whether it's post-budget with the rules or not with the rules, when you sell that property in the future, you will actually still have negative gearing calculations as part of it. It's just deferred. And so many property investors were still buying properties in family trusts and companies pre-budget night.

[00:12:25] Mm-hmm.

[00:12:26] And those property investors have still been having the same gearing treatment of deferred benefits.

[00:12:32] Mm-hmm.

[00:12:33] And so only 90% of individually owned properties or property investors, individual property investors, own one or two investment properties. So that means the 10% of individual property investors actually own more than two.

[00:12:48] Yeah. So it's the minority that own many. The majority that owned one or two- Mm ... from their perspective, they're the ones impacted on personal name investments moving forward. Yeah. But it's still deferred, it's not gone. Yeah. But for the majority of property investors who had or plans to or have prolific portfolios, they are still getting the same treatment with this negative gearing changes.

[00:13:07] They probably would've been buying in entities anyway.

[00:13:10] So it almost sounds like really people need to calm down a little bit and not freak out as much. Is that what I'm hearing from you?

[00:13:18] Absolutely. But the good news is that if people are freaking out, those who take action-

[00:13:24] Yeah ...

[00:13:24] are benefiting from everyone else's freak-out.

[00:13:26] So in a way, sure, even there, there are people who are feeling that way, the panic.

[00:13:31] Yeah.

[00:13:32] But actually this panic is also creating a lot of benefits.

[00:13:35] Yeah. And I do love what you say as well around, like, we don't base wealth creation off tax. I think that's so important for people to remember. And so just my final question is, with this capital gains discount being replaced by indexation plus the 30% minimum tax, does that change your view on how long you should plan to hold a property?

[00:13:57] Or is it no, 'cause you were always gonna ... It's not, it doesn't actually even affect the strategy 'cause you're always gonna be a long-term holder?

[00:14:04] Yeah, if you're a long-term holder, that's where you get the greatest benefit. At the end of the day, when you look at the long term of property markets, there's something called the third decade effect, and the third decade effect is like compounding coming to life.

[00:14:16] It's, uh, a 500k property, if it, say, does double over 10 years is two times. Over 20 years, now that doubles again, is four times. But over the 30-year mark, for anyone in their 20s and 30s investing, that's eight times. Mm. So you just went from two, four, eight, not two, four, six. So really compounding takes effect the biggest and the best over time.

[00:14:35] And from that perspective, this just shows what can happen in terms of long-term holding.

[00:14:40] Fantastic. All right. Well, thank you so much. Is there anything else we should be chatting about or that we should know about that's happening at the moment in the industry, or is that a pretty good-

[00:14:51] Look, I think that's the best summary to say- Yeah

[00:14:52] is that having a look at it from a perspective of what the team was looking at from the data that we see is that it's just people having a cold, a sneeze, and just wondering, "Should we, like, not... Maybe I'll stay home. Maybe I'll do nothing." And for those who wanna take advantage for their financial future, they're taking action.

[00:15:11] Yeah. I just don't know very many people who've waited and then gotten back when everyone gets back and seem to have won following that formula. Yeah. The people who've won in these times have just gone, "I follow a checklist. I took action each year." Yeah. My wife and I personally have bought something every year since 2015.

[00:15:28] Wasn't because of anything but the checklist strategy. So that's key.

[00:15:32] Love it. Love the checklist strategy. All right. Once again, thank you so much for joining us on the Get Rich podcast and sharing your knowledge so practically and generously.

[00:15:42] You're welcome.

KEYWORDS
property investing, policy changes, wealth creation, investment strategies, market analysis